Confirmed: the Earth is warming

The Berkeley Earth Project is an independent group (set up after the so-called “Climategate” affair) who have just released their conclusions on Global Warming: yes, the Earth is getting hotter.

There are three things I find interesting about these results.

The first is the “many paths, one destination” in science. In terms of checking someone’s results, the first step is to see if you get to the same conclusion. The next step is to see if you get the same conclusion using a combination of different data sets and different analysis methods. Result: it appears the Earth is still warming.

The second is their approach to publishing the data. It is yet to be presented in a peer-reviewed journal, but first you (yes, you sitting at the keyboard) can download their datasets and check the results for yourself.

This “Democratisation of Science” — the completely transparent publication of data and results — is a possible future of science publication and discussion.

The third is the fact that some of the groups funding this project are lobbying against climate action. Nevertheless, the world still warms.

More information from BBC Science and Environment: Global warming ‘confirmed’ by independent study.

You and Me versus Zombies 005

(Or, A Reluctant Father’s Guide to Child-Raising in a Post-Apocalyptic World. Explanation.)

     In the new life, take the time it normally takes to do a task, and multiply it by five. Maybe ten.
     I shovel cereal and fruit puree into Sam’s little mouth, and leave him on the couch sucking down one last bottle of formula. It gives me enough time to drain my coffee and eat a near-expired breakfast bar.
     I change his nappy. It’s only wet today, so the morning poo hasn’t come yet. I decide to risk it and put on a fresh nappy, then coax his wriggling limbs into a singlet, pants, shirt, jumper, socks, shoes, and a tiny jacket with Bob the Builder on it.
     I check the pram. I make sure the tool kit is secure, I have enough cotton shopping bags, and some freshly loaded magazines for the rifle.
     I comfort the boy. Ten minutes on the couch cuddling Sam after he bangs his head on the coffee table chasing his train. I pretend my hand is possessed by a tickling monster, and we spend another fifteen minutes chasing each other around the house with tickles.
     His pants are wet. Forgot to check his peenie was point the right way when I put on his nappy. I change the nappy and his pants.
     I put on yesterdays clothes and I hear him grunting in the corridor. The morning poo has arrived.
     I clean him up. I change his nappy.
     We are in front of the door. He is in his chariot. My hand is on the latch.
     “Ready?”

You and Me versus Zombies 004

(Or, A Reluctant Father’s Guide to Child-Raising in a Post-Apocalyptic World. Explanation.)

     In the front room is our pram. Sam’s chariot. My pride.
     The selection of the pram was on of the few things I had control over in the months of Sam’s approach. I had spent several hours one morning in the pram section of a baby warehouse. Prams sat in rows like a car showroom, and I carefully test drove every model around the warehouse; feeling the shifting weight as it cornered; checking the break’s release lever; collapsing the frame for storage and transport.
     I eventually decided on a model from Sweden, that had six different configurations like a transforming toy.
     Since Zero Hour, it has had only two modifications. The harness that holds Sam snugly can now be released from the main frame of the pram, and Sam can be thrown papoose-like onto my back for quick get-aways. This involved several nights of careful snipping and stitching, and the cannibalising of two backpacks and one child’s car seat.
     The second modification is the rifle bag slung under the handle.

You and Me versus Zombies 003

(Or, A Reluctant Father’s Guide to Child-Raising in a Post-Apocalyptic World. Explanation.)

     I leave the kettle rumbling on the camp burner and unbolt the back sliding door. The entire back used to be windows, but I long since boarded it up with the front doors of several houses in the my street.
     I’ve never been sure what to call the back of my house. ‘Backyard’ always conjures images of lawn and swimming pool, which it certainly does not have. ‘Courtyard’ is just wrong, too. Patio? I just don’t know.
     I step onto the night-cooled wooden boards and look up to the morning blue sky. It feels slightly claustrophobic here, what with my extensions the fence. High fences makes good neighbours of the things outside.
     Secured to one side is a metal ladder. I quickly scale it to the top and look over the rooftops of my suburb. The back alley behind the house is thankfully clear this morning. Extending is all directions are tiled rooftops, covering their various secrets, and possibly occupants. I just don’t know.
     In the distance is the city skyline. Skyscrapers once the home of commerce, now forever dark at night. Two plumes of smoke curl past the buildings from unseen fires that have been burning for the last two months. I would go and investigate, but I learned early that the CBD was not a place to visit. No exceptions.
     I hear happy cackle from below me. I look down and see Sam standing on the second rung of the ladder, jigging in his triumph. For a moment I feel torn about his achievement. Should I tell him off for doing something so obviously dangerous for him? Maybe I should let him have his moment of victory? I just don’t know.

You and Me versus Zombies 002

(Or, A Reluctant Father’s Guide to Child-Raising in a Post-Apocalyptic World. Explanation.)

     I wander into the kitchen cum dinning cum living room that makes up the entire back quarter of the townhouse. Somewhere my foot hits a plastic train, and I hear the oversized wheels rattle as it runs under the couch. Sam twists in my arms and he’s already running to the toy as I put him on the floorboards.
     From the pantry I pull a 500mL plastic bottle of spring water and crack open its cap. I pop the lid of the kettle and upend the bottle into the opening, and leave it to drain noisily.
     I twist the gas knob and set the burners going with a long match. The box rattles emptily. One more thing on the shopping list.
     While the kettle hisses, I stand in front of the pantry and do a stock-take. Breakfast cereal packets line the top like happy, fun-coloured bricks. Next shelf have stacked dozens of packets of raw fettuccine like piles of cut logs. Sitting next to them is a battalion of pasta sauce jars. Instant coffee and baby formula are on the bottom shelf, along with bottled water.
     I shake one of the formula cans, and hear the complementary measuring spoon rattle in what’s left of the powder. How could I let that get so low?
     “Sam,” I say to the nappied bottom and stubby legs sticking out from under the couch. “We’re going shopping.”

You and Me versus Zombies 001

(Or, A Reluctant Father’s Guide to Child-Raising in a Post-Apocalyptic World. Explanation.)

     I wake with Sam’s finger in my eye.
     “Aye,” he says. He’s drooling around the dummy, deftly held in his mouth even while talking.
     He takes out his finger and I blink to clear my vision, and he stuffs it up my nostril.
     “Noz,” he says.
     I gently pull his hand away and give him a cuddle while I wake up. Last night was a rough, and I had woken several time to howls in the street. Probably another pack fight, which means I’ll be street-cleaning again. Another never-ending task to add to today’s routine.
     I feel Sam writhe in my arms, and I silently cursed his current sleeping patterns. In actual fact, I curse myself. I know the routine, but I still faffed about last night being busy and achieving nothing, knowing full well he was going to spring awake at sparrow’s fart. I think I finally fell into a deep sleep in the early hours, only to now be interrupted by the naming-game.
     I flex my jaw. There’s a dull ache near my ear, which probably means I’m grinding my teeth again. This is concerning. The nearest dentist probably can’t remember how to open doors, let alone do any reconstructive work. I work my mouth, and a small hand gets stuffed inside.
     “Teeff,” says Sam.

You and Me versus Zombies

Over the past several years I have mentioned to people (usually with a wine glass in my hand and slightly slurring) that I had an idea for a story called “A Reluctant Father’s Guide to Child-Raising in a Post-Apocalyptic World.”

The idea sprang from a couple of sources. Mainly that (when Gabe was on the way) I couldn’t stand the So-You’re-Going-To-Be-A-Father books that I was presented with. Presumptuous, belittling paperbacks, usually filled with cartoons of incompetent males trying to change nappies.

(I only ever found one that spoke on my wavelength: Dad Rules by Andrew Clover. Very insightful and utterly brilliant.)

“If I was ever to write one of those books,” I would say, “It would have a backdrop of the zombie-apocalypse.”

Several have said they would like to see such a story. So here it comes.

I have taken a page (ahem) out of Max Barry’s book, and will be presenting it one page a day, give or take a paragraph.

Enlightenment and Education: public lecture by Sir Harold Kroto

There is a free public lecture (bookings necessary) at RMIT on Wednesday night.

Enlightenment and Education: public lecture by Sir Harold Kroto.

How can the internet help communicate science, make sense of scientific methodology and lead to more informed public debate?

Hear Nobel Laureate Sir Harold Kroto on the crucial issues of science, education and the public sphere in a free public lecture as part of the RMIT Transforming the Future lecture series on Wednesday 28 September.

Professor Kroto will discuss his views on the importance of scientific knowledge and education, and how both are vital to better informing public debate around issues such as climate change.

The event is free but registrations are essential.

Date Wednesday 28 September 2011
Time 6.00 pm – 7.30 pm
Location RMIT University, City campus, Storey Hall, 342 Swanston Street, Melbourne

See you there.

It’s Not Circus, It’s Science

School Holidays are here, and rather than hemorrhage money at the Royal Melbourne Show, there are many other events to take you’re little ones.

For instance, I can heartily recommend It’s Not Circus, It’s Science, put on by the duo Barnard and Wild of Teacup Tumble Theatre. It’s circus meets science meets physical comedy and whips.

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to today’s Inaugural Symposium of Distinguished Scientists. Professors Wild and Barnard are here to demonstrate some important scientific breakthroughs – if only Professor Wild would stop tampering with the equipment and making friends with the audience.

It’s Not Circus It’s Science is a 40 minute show complete with acrobatics, clowning, neuroscience and physics. Audiences gasp, yell and laugh uproariously as these ridiculous scientists fumble their way through their presentation. Adults love it, children love it, scientists wish they were it; this is circus for the elite minds of the 21st Century!

Dates: September 27th – 30th
Times: 11am each day
Duration: 40 minutes + 10 minutes Q&A
Ages: 5 to 12 & their families
Venue: Northcote Uniting Church Hall
Cost: $15 regular, $12 concession
Bookings: (03) 9481 9500 or Click Here
How to Get There: Click Here

Think Inc. A wrap-up.

Last Sunday saw the first Think Inc. conference in Melbourne. Thanks to my awesome manager I was able to score a place in the crowd.

Here’s a few notes on each of the presenters, hastily put together from my jottings on the day. I’m putting this here without much thought or analysis for friends and interested onlookers who missed the day.

Tim Flannery

Tim set the theme of the conference by talking on forces that create civilisation. He says rather than focussing on the big people of history, that instead we should instead frame the main progenitor as evolution by natural selection. (Incidentally, the Chinese translation of “evolution by natural selection” is words to the effect of “Heavens’ Performance.”)

He laments that evolution has been badly misunderstood over the last 150 years. For instance, “survival of the fittest.” This description is wrong and misrepresentational.

Building has to be “win-win.” Coorperation is necessary for the world we live in.

Civilisation has arisen through different species long before we created ours. Cockroach-like creatures formed complex communities that eventually became what we see today as termites. The ideal civilisation is much like leaf-cutter ants, where (as Plato said) there is “no difference between mine and thine.”

The ants’ civilisation is built on having shared genes. Our civilisations are built on having shared ideas.
Human civilisation seems to have arisen five times independentally around the world, yet they are all very similar, which could be attributed to the hand of evolution by natural selection.

Today, our interconnectedness (through the internet) is eroding the “in” group.

For the next 10 years, Tim’s suggestions were:

o Think of yourself as a citizen of the world.
o Think of global solutions that can be implemented locally.
o Remember that the barriers are falling down.

Wrapping up, he commented on the Fermi paradox – that is, why does there seem to be no evidence for other civilisations in the galaxy? To his mind there were two solutions to the paradox: the creation of the Global Voice is so traumatic that it is killed off at birth. Or that we are the first.

Cristina Rad

Cristina is a video blogger who analyses questions of society with a rigorous logic and rationalism missing from many modern commentators.

(And dripping with irony, too.)

Cristina posed several reframing of problems and solutions to societal problems, such as gay marriage, legalisation of drugs and the legality of prostitution.

Cristina Rad: “I do want world peace, and which arsehole doesn’t?”

Ayaan Hirsi Ali

Ayaan posed three predictions of the future world of 2021: one optimistic, one muddling through, the final a doom scenario.

She espoused that we need to revive the values of the Enlightenment. We are too laid back with expressing our message, and we need to promote ideas with the same fervour as fundamentalist and extremist religious groups.

Shane Koyczan

Shane is a slam poet from Canada, and after his forty-five minute set I NEEDED his book. I have been rarely moved by poetry the way I was that day.

Later, in the foyer to sign books, he wasn’t able to make it to the official area before a line spontaneously formed in front of him. Conference organisers then brought a table and chair to him.

Shane Koyczan

Neil deGrasse Tyson

…was a brilliant speaker. He was the first for the day to actually use the whole stage, owning the space and drawing us into his world view.

Neil was one of those responsible for reclassifying Pluto as a dwarf planet, which he has received much criticism over, and necessitated this slide:

Pluto (get over it)

The thrust of his talk was on the “profound science illiteracy” and the effects of this on society in the United States, highlighted by catastrophic infrastructure failures such as the failing of New Orleans’ levee banks.

Then, paying service to the original conference theme of Atheism, he spent some time looking at the statistic for religious people in the community. He revealed that 7% of “Elite Scientists” are religious, and suggested that if the Atheist evangelists (my term) of the audience were interested in changing people’s minds, then they should start on that 7%, and find out why they are of the opinion that they are.

Tyson was a brilliant presenter, and my hasty summarising of his talk does not do it any justice. YouTube are full of some of his greatest moments. Start with this one:

Michael Shermer

Michael, founding publisher of Skeptic Magazine, presented a rationalist’s (read: skeptic’s) approach to the world. Essentially the Null hypothesis. That is, if someone presents a hypothesis, you say “That’s nice. Now prove it.”
Question what the mechanism is. Our brains have a fallibility in that we look for patterns, and assume all patterns are real.

He outlined ways of presenting a convincing argument against fuzzy thinking, and was the second speaker for the day to invoke “carrying on the Enlightenment.”

For a first-off conference, I would imagine the organisers were very pleased with the outcome (even though Christopher Hitchens was unable to make his time.) Not only do I look forward to finding out the speakers for next year, but also am interested in the groups that will form before, during and afterwards for some more intellectual debating.

(I can also be heard rambling incoherently in Martin S. Pribble’s Think Inc. Vox Pop Podcast.)